Archive | January, 2011

Super Bowl XLV money line; who will win?

25 Jan

I am amazed to find out this morning that Green Bay is the favorite in Super Bowl XLV.  They are definitely one of the hot teams right now, however, Pittsburgh arguably just beat the best team left in the playoffs.  Of course maybe my bias is getting a hold of me, but alas it matters no more as I  look to next year for vindication.  Now I get to root against the team that beat up my Jets, however, it does not mean that I won’t go ahead and place a bet against that same team.  That’s right – Pittsburgh is favored based on the stats and the stats don’t lie; although they are not always right!  In any case, here is a synopsis of team strength vs team strength:

Pittsburgh rushing attack #11 regular season versus Green Bay rush defense #18

Green Bay pass attack #5 regular season versus Pittsburgh pass defense #12

What does it all mean.  It means Pittsburgh’s rushing attack and clock control wins out and good luck to GB’s pass defense stopping Big Ben in motion.  Pitts has the recent Super Bowl experience, Green Bay has been absent too long.  The system gives Pitts the advantage with a little over 2 points, meaning Pittsburgh should be laying at least 2 points.  The fact that they are getting 3 is a no brainer.  The bottom line: take Pittsburgh with the points!  Let’s see if we can make it 12 wins and 5 losses to end a great season!!

Disclaimer:  Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.


Proprietary NFL betting system – bets revealed!

19 Jan

Since I am the betting type, but not the gambling type, I always find a game that I know has the best odds for me to win.  For instance, when in a casino, I will always go for the blackjack or craps tables because those give the best odds/advantage.  Likewise, several years back, I really got into playing Texas Hold’Em and realized that since it is a skill game, if your skills increase your chance of winning increases, i.e. you gain the advantage.  This is why I classify myself as the betting type because for me when I place a bet, I expect to have a good chance to win.  Gamblers throw their money around on roulette #12 and don’t really have a game plan – their fun is the action, the rush.  My fun is winning $$.

This year I began my foray into the world of sports betting.  Over the years I have improved on a system of analyzing teams playing each other as an aid to picking fantasy team players.  This year I decided to use this tool to compare to the Vegas odds to see if I could gain an advantage and what I had found was that indeed, according to my analysis, there were certain games where:

1.  my system showed a team having the advantage that was actually getting points

2. or my system showed major domination over another team and was not giving that many points to its competitor.

In the case of the #1’s it clearly means that you should take the bet every time.  and in the case of the #2’s, a bet should be made if the spread difference would be at least 4-5 points.

The following is a list of my results and the profit and loss for this season.  I started in week 13 as I finished the system late in the season.  From week 13 to the Divisional playoffs I have placed a total of 16 bets, winning 11 of them for a winning percentage of 68.75%.  The key to this system is to not let your emotions or a teams record influence you away from the bet.  For instance, my system pegged Green Bay as the team with the advantage vs Atlanta in the divisional round of the playoffs even though they were a 6 seed, Atlanta was a 1 seed and the game was held in Atlanta.  Green Bay was given 2 points and succeeded in knocking off the Falcons with a 48-21 victory.  There is no bet this week in the Championship games.

For the 2011-2012 football season I will share the bets from my system each week so definitely add this site to your favorites and come back or sign up to receive e-mails.  I will also try to work on a similar system for baseball in the coming months.

Super Bowl Box Odds

18 Jan

And Super Bowl XLV quickly approaches…everyone is getting their Super Bowl boxes ready.  What to do when you get your final drawn numbers?  Well, look up the odds of you winning something!  I searched long and hard over the internet last year and found one that was updated through Super Bowl XLII so thanks to that person I liked and used their format.  I have updated through the last Superbowl (XLIV) and also added another straight-up box odds which does not account for the AFC vs NFC just for fun…good luck and lets go J-E-T-S!

click on this link: