Since I am the betting type, but not the gambling type, I always find a game that I know has the best odds for me to win. For instance, when in a casino, I will always go for the blackjack or craps tables because those give the best odds/advantage. Likewise, several years back, I really got into playing Texas Hold’Em and realized that since it is a skill game, if your skills increase your chance of winning increases, i.e. you gain the advantage. This is why I classify myself as the betting type because for me when I place a bet, I expect to have a good chance to win. Gamblers throw their money around on roulette #12 and don’t really have a game plan – their fun is the action, the rush. My fun is winning $$.
This year I began my foray into the world of sports betting. Over the years I have improved on a system of analyzing teams playing each other as an aid to picking fantasy team players. This year I decided to use this tool to compare to the Vegas odds to see if I could gain an advantage and what I had found was that indeed, according to my analysis, there were certain games where:
1. my system showed a team having the advantage that was actually getting points
2. or my system showed major domination over another team and was not giving that many points to its competitor.
In the case of the #1’s it clearly means that you should take the bet every time. and in the case of the #2’s, a bet should be made if the spread difference would be at least 4-5 points.
The following is a list of my results and the profit and loss for this season. I started in week 13 as I finished the system late in the season. From week 13 to the Divisional playoffs I have placed a total of 16 bets, winning 11 of them for a winning percentage of 68.75%. The key to this system is to not let your emotions or a teams record influence you away from the bet. For instance, my system pegged Green Bay as the team with the advantage vs Atlanta in the divisional round of the playoffs even though they were a 6 seed, Atlanta was a 1 seed and the game was held in Atlanta. Green Bay was given 2 points and succeeded in knocking off the Falcons with a 48-21 victory. There is no bet this week in the Championship games.
For the 2011-2012 football season I will share the bets from my system each week so definitely add this site to your favorites and come back or sign up to receive e-mails. I will also try to work on a similar system for baseball in the coming months.