Can NuPathe, Inc. (PATH) add to its recent gains

23 Mar

About NuPathe, Inc. (PATH)

The following research is based on a potential momentum play based on the Companies PDUFA date for Zelrix of August 29, 2011.  NuPathe Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of branded therapeutics for diseases of the central nervous system. 

 About Zelrix:  from the Companies website:  (http://www.nupathe.com/cns/migraine-zelrix.php)

  • Is a transdermal sumatriptan patch for the treatment of migraine; if approved will be the first patch to treat migraine
  • Fast onset and sustained release resulting in less nausea during use than other pain medications
  • Migraines affect approximately 28 million people in the U.S ~ could be a large market
  • Good safety data (see “Top line results from 12 month study” link below)
  • Negatives
    • Unusual delivery system ~ will people wear patch
    • Patch causes rashes and/or skin irritations

 FDA acceptance of NDA filing for Zelrix

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/NuPathe-Announces-FDA-iw-2664699224.html?x=0&.v=1

Top line results from 12 month study for Zelrix

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/NuPathe-Announces-Positive-iw-371046875.html?x=0&.v=1

Product pipeline

 

 Financial info

 From 10K for year ended 12/31/10; filing on 3/18/11

  • Cash $ 38.9M
  • Total assets $ 43.7M
  • L-T debt $ 3.7M
  • Looks to be in solid cash position; should be able to last through potential approval without further dilution, i.e. stock offering(s)

From quote summary 3/22/11

  • Market cap $ 117M
  • Shares o/s 14.55M, float 4.54M
  • P/E n/a
  • Average analyst target $ 13.70

 Stock data

  

Based on the above chart, I am definitely a buyer right now due to a break above the triangle (bull flag) and a stop loss set a little below 7.  Buy more if it breaks the 9.60 level on high volume.  The only downfall is the lack of pipeline as there are only 2 other products that are not even in Phase I trials yet and the fact that the migraine patch is an unusual delivery system that may not gain traction in the market.  However, the safety data IMO gives PATH a greater chance of approval.  So given the chance of approval, the limited market cap of the company and the cash balance that appears there would be no dilution before PDUFA,  I think this stock has great potential, for a 20-30% gain or more by the PDUFA date.  Target range 9.60-10.40. 

 See my other reports under the Biotech Momentum tab and sign up at the bottom to subscribe for e-mail alerts:

https://pokerexpress.wordpress.com/category/biotech-momentum/

Disclosure:  currently long PATH

Disclaimer: I have never ever been paid or compensated by anyone for any stock I trade or discuss. None of the information posted on this site is to be construed as financial or investment advice. This information is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned on this board. The creator of this board is not a licensed broker or financial advisor of any kind. The information on this site is gathered from sources available to the public. As consideration in using this board, all users agree, understand, and acknowledge the creator of the board is not liable or responsible for the accuracy or use of the information provided on this site and agree to indemnify and hold the creator of this board harmless from any liability resulting from the accuracy or inaccuracy of the information and from use of the information on this board. All of the information that I post on this board is public information available to anyone! You are responsible for your own trades and not the creator of this board.  Please be aware that investing in securities carries the risk of losing some or all of your money.

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5 Responses to “Can NuPathe, Inc. (PATH) add to its recent gains”

  1. McBrian March 23, 2011 at 2:40 pm #

    Sumatriptan is already a fully genericized drug and available as a tablet and an injection to treat — wait for it — migrains. (The Branded version, Imitrex, is also available as a nasal spray.)

    Question the First:
    Does the speed of delivery from the patch provide enough benefit to overcome the price increase.

    Question the Second:
    Does the patch provide more, faster benefit than the nasal spray?

    Too soon to tell.

  2. MigraineDoc March 26, 2011 at 12:54 pm #

    Good question, McBrian. Oral and nasal preparations of sumatriptan are primarily absorbed through the GI. Since migraine itself can cause nausea and vomiting and gastric stasis, patients may avoid medications that will exacerbate those conditions. Even if patients take them, vomiting and gastric stasis interfere with the absorption of the medication. A transdermal patch could deliver the medications quickly and reliably, bypassing the GI, and providing quick relief. So it’s not just speed: it’s also reliability, control, and actual relief.

    It’s too soon to tell how this delivery system would fare in the market, if FDA approved. But there are preliminary studies on speed and efficacy of the delivery method, so it’s not too soon to tell about that.

  3. pokerexpress March 28, 2011 at 10:20 pm #

    Interesting prognosis MigraineDoc, it sounds like you have done your homework. Yes indeed it seems like a more reliable medication for those migraine sufferors that do have symptoms of naseau and vomiting, however, I believe the trick will be getting the advertising and the word out on this type of delivery and getting people to try it as the patch is an unusual delivery method.
    The good news is the use of the patch in nicotine prevention and in some birth control uses, etc. I think this definitely helps in making this delivery system more mainstream for the masses!

  4. pokerexpress April 5, 2011 at 3:43 pm #

    PATH is down 5.5% today on no news. It may be a large shareholder dumping or something else is going on that we don’t know about. I have seen this many times before, a sell off on increased volume before a stock offering, weak test data, etc. Or sometimes it means nothing. We need to pay close attention to the chart in the next few days to determine if this is a sell or hold.

  5. pokerexpress July 14, 2011 at 11:24 am #

    Still holding here for PDUFA date of August 29th. Should begin to gain some momentum in the next 4 weeks…

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