Archive | June, 2011

Belmont Stakes 2011 race day

10 Jun

Tomorrow is the 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes.  I have done some handicapping from the 6th race through the 11th and will share my thoughts below on which horses I think can put some cash in your pocket.  Please review the disclaimer below and most important enjoy race day!

Race 6

I like Turbulent Descent and Snow Fall in an exacta box.  My worry is that Snow Fall only has two races above 6 furlongs in its history so this is a risky play, however, the speed on the last two races and the 8-1 morning line definitely makes it a worthwhile bet.

Race 7

I love Frazil for an across the board (W/P/S) laddered with the majority of the money on the Show, i.e. W $2, P $3, S $5.  If he stays close the morning line odds at 15-1, this will be an excellent value pick.  I also will think about taking Trappe Shot and Calibrachoa in an exacta box.

Race 8

Take an across the board on J J’s Lucky Train with the emphasis on the win.  Derivative may be a nice long shot play as he is a clocker special according to DRF (Daily racing form).

Race 9

I am all over Cherokee Queen for a W/P/S bet with emphasis on Show.  Or a large W bet.  At 8-1 morning line odds he is showing up in my analysis as the stand out favorite.  He also was a clocker special.  Take him across the board if you have a weak stomach.  Also consider taking the favorites Aviate and Fantasia in an exacta.

Race 10

Another across the board is a good bet on Windward Islands.  He stands out as the #2 horse based on my analysis and at a morning line of 8-1 if it holds up, holds great value.  In his last 5 races at a distance of 1 mile and up, he placed 1st twice, second once, and third twice.  If the line creeps up further, increase your bet dollar for dollar above 8-1!

Race 11

Finally the Belmont Stakes.  I don’t think Shackleford will have enough juice to front run and take the Belmont like he did the Preakness.  I expect Animal Kingdom to have enough distance after the turn to catch him and beat him handily to become horse of the year.  The bad news is he will pay crap, so we gotta exacta or trifecta him somehow.  Take Animal Kingdom 1st, Nehro and Shackleford 2nd, and Mucho Macho Man, Brilliant Speed, and Santiva 3rd.  On a $2 bet that is only $12.  I also like Brilliant Speed as a value play to Place or Show. 

Good luck at the races!  I have my Blue Lagoon drinks ready to roll (look up the recipe they’re absolutely delicious) and money ready in my account…

 

Disclaimer:  The above are not recommendations but merely for entertainment purposes only.  Use your own judgement and never place a bet with money you cannot afford to lose.  The owner of this blog is not responsible for any money lost in wagering on the above ideas.

 

Advertisements

Will BioSante Pharmaceuticals (BPAX) continue to surge upward?

1 Jun

About BioSante Pharmaceuticals

BioSante is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing products the treatment of female sexual health and oncology.

 Products

 

Link from company website:

http://www.biosantepharma.com/Products.php

  •  The product I am mainly focusing in on is Bio-T-Gel which is a testosterone gel for the treatment of low testosterone levels in men.  The FDA has accepted the application for the drug and given a PDUFA date of November 14th 2011
    • http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/13/us-biosante-idUSTRE73C2RV20110413?feedType=RSS&feedName=globalMarketsNews&rpc=43
    • One negative for the drug is taken right from the companies 10Q is the following:  “Bio-T-Gel was developed initially by BioSante, and then it was licensed to Teva for late stage clinical development.  Teva has filed the Bio-T-Gel NDA and the PDUFA date is November 14, 2011. In April 2011, Abbott Laboratories, a marketer of a testosterone gel for men, filed a complaint against Teva alleging patent infringement with respect to Bio-T-Gel.  In its NDA filing, Teva has asserted that Bio-T-Gel does not infringe any patent listed in the FDA Orange Book related to Abbott’s testosterone gel for men.  Although the outcome of the litigation is uncertain, it could delay the FDA approval and commercial launch of Bio-T-Gel and therefore potentially affect our receipt of royalties based on sales of Bio-T-Gel by Teva.”
    • Another negative is this is the first go round for approval, so there is always the greater possibility of a CRL
  • BioSante is also currently performing a Phase III trial for its lead product LibiGel which is a treatment of female sexual dysfunction under a SPA (special protocol assessment)
  • Other catalysts include 4 cancer vaccines that have all been granted FDA orphan drug status that are still in developmental phase

Financial information

From 10Q filed  5/10/11

 From Yahoo! quote summary6/1/11

  • Market cap $287M
  • Avg analyst target $5.05
  • P/E – N/A
  • Shares o/s 94M, float 83M, short 10.5M

 Stock data and trading plan

  

My plan is to wait for the next dip and trigger the first round of buying between 2.60-2.80 per share, then wait for a break to a new high to add (the high it hits on this leg up).  I will be playing this for a gain of about 10-20% due to the worries about the lawsuit, the fact that this is the first attempt at approval for Bio-T-Gel, the high float of the stock and the anticipation of a summer sideways market.  Of course, if news breaks that the lawsuit has been dismissed then I will play more aggressively.  Also, the fact that the Company has already received financing allows for no more dilution until the PDUFA date.  For now, though the plan is to buy on the dip, hold for a breakout, add, then sell into strength.  GLTA

I would like to hear your comments and also be sure to see my other reports under the Biotech Momentum tab and sign up on the right hand side to subscribe for e-mail alerts:

https://pokerexpress.wordpress.com/category/biotech-momentum/

Disclosure:  currently no position in BPAX

Disclaimer: I have never ever been paid or compensated by anyone for any stock I trade or discuss. None of the information posted on this site is to be construed as financial or investment advice. This information is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned on this blog. The creator of this blog is not a licensed broker or financial advisor of any kind. The information on this site is gathered from sources available to the public. As consideration in using this blog, all users agree, understand, and acknowledge the creator of the blog is not liable or responsible for the accuracy or use of the information provided on this site and agree to indemnify and hold the creator of this blog harmless from any liability resulting from the accuracy or inaccuracy of the information and from use of the information on this board. All of the information that I post on this blog is public information available to anyone! You are responsible for your own trades and not the creator of this blog.  Please be aware that investing in securities carries the risk of losing some or all of your money.