Belmont Stakes 2011 race day

10 Jun

Tomorrow is the 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes.  I have done some handicapping from the 6th race through the 11th and will share my thoughts below on which horses I think can put some cash in your pocket.  Please review the disclaimer below and most important enjoy race day!

Race 6

I like Turbulent Descent and Snow Fall in an exacta box.  My worry is that Snow Fall only has two races above 6 furlongs in its history so this is a risky play, however, the speed on the last two races and the 8-1 morning line definitely makes it a worthwhile bet.

Race 7

I love Frazil for an across the board (W/P/S) laddered with the majority of the money on the Show, i.e. W $2, P $3, S $5.  If he stays close the morning line odds at 15-1, this will be an excellent value pick.  I also will think about taking Trappe Shot and Calibrachoa in an exacta box.

Race 8

Take an across the board on J J’s Lucky Train with the emphasis on the win.  Derivative may be a nice long shot play as he is a clocker special according to DRF (Daily racing form).

Race 9

I am all over Cherokee Queen for a W/P/S bet with emphasis on Show.  Or a large W bet.  At 8-1 morning line odds he is showing up in my analysis as the stand out favorite.  He also was a clocker special.  Take him across the board if you have a weak stomach.  Also consider taking the favorites Aviate and Fantasia in an exacta.

Race 10

Another across the board is a good bet on Windward Islands.  He stands out as the #2 horse based on my analysis and at a morning line of 8-1 if it holds up, holds great value.  In his last 5 races at a distance of 1 mile and up, he placed 1st twice, second once, and third twice.  If the line creeps up further, increase your bet dollar for dollar above 8-1!

Race 11

Finally the Belmont Stakes.  I don’t think Shackleford will have enough juice to front run and take the Belmont like he did the Preakness.  I expect Animal Kingdom to have enough distance after the turn to catch him and beat him handily to become horse of the year.  The bad news is he will pay crap, so we gotta exacta or trifecta him somehow.  Take Animal Kingdom 1st, Nehro and Shackleford 2nd, and Mucho Macho Man, Brilliant Speed, and Santiva 3rd.  On a $2 bet that is only $12.  I also like Brilliant Speed as a value play to Place or Show. 

Good luck at the races!  I have my Blue Lagoon drinks ready to roll (look up the recipe they’re absolutely delicious) and money ready in my account…

 

Disclaimer:  The above are not recommendations but merely for entertainment purposes only.  Use your own judgement and never place a bet with money you cannot afford to lose.  The owner of this blog is not responsible for any money lost in wagering on the above ideas.

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: