NFL Week 4 picks

30 Sep

Football is back and now that I have 3 weeks of data to work with I will try an post some picks each week.  I am not personally betting on these games yet as I would like to see at least 4-5 weeks of data before I start laying down some cash.  Will keep you posted when I start to place my own money on the games.  Here is a list of who to take for week 4:

Stattrack:

PASS SCORE RUSH SCORE TOTAL OFF SCORE Advantage pts Advantage spread PASS SCORE RUSH SCORE TOTAL OFF SCORE Advantage pts Advantage spread Vegas spread home team only Spread diff Diff %
Week 4
Tennessee Titans (2.23) (9.27) (11.50) 26.90 5.38 Cleveland Browns (28.75) (14.66) (43.40) (1.00) (6.38) 638%
San Francisco 49ers (7.98) (0.23) (8.21) 29.49 5.90 Philadelphia Eagles (20.54) (22.17) (42.71) (7.00) (12.90) 184%
Minnesota Vikings (6.45) 40.82 34.37 52.13 10.43 Kansas City Chiefs (23.36) 0.59 (22.76) 1.50 (8.93) -595%
Carolina Panthers 10.02 (11.21) (1.19) 17.18 3.44 Chicago Bears 4.79 (28.16) (23.37) (6.50) (9.94) 153%
New York Jets (16.08) (13.49) (29.57) Baltimore Ravens (20.61) 34.19 13.57 48.15 9.63 (4.00) 5.63 -141%
Colts (7.01) (10.84) (17.85) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22.35) 10.80 (11.55) 11.30 2.26 (10.00) (7.74) 77%
Washington Redskins 13.50 20.37 33.88 43.48 8.70 St. Louis Rams (16.35) 1.75 (14.60) (8.70) #DIV/0!

How you read the above is, you look at the spread for the home team amount.  If negative, the home team is giving points, positive and the home team is receiving points.  The home team is the second team.  Now the spread difference takes the difference between the system calculated (pbS) amounts and the spread.  pbS calculates an advantage spread of 5.38 points for the Tennessee Titans – meaning the system thinks that the Titans should be favored by at least 5 points.  Since the Browns are favored instead and the spread difference is more than my rule of 5 points, then you will be betting on the Tennessee Titans to win.  Next, SF’s has the advantage over the Eagles, so you will be taking SF with the spread.  Next Minnesota’s calculated advantage is over 10 points and the spread is only giving KC 1.5.  You are going to take Minnesota.  Finally the Colts are receiving 10 points from the Bucs who should only be giving 2.26.  Take the Colts with the points.

Thats it for now have fun and good luck!

 

 

Disclaimer:   Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.

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