Archive | September, 2013

Week 4 NFL bets

26 Sep

Week 4 picks are in.  See notes on how to read this below.  Please see disclaimer at the bottom of this post.

Week 4 Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Vegas spread
Baltimore Ravens           –          4.33 Buffalo Bills         6.01      11.89 3.5
New York Giants           –       (36.80) Kansas City Chiefs         9.26      27.00 -4.5
New York Jets        6.96       (12.12) Tennessee Titans             –     (29.40) -4.5
Seattle Seahawks        5.59        20.59 Houston Texans             –     (27.35) 3
Philadelphia Eagles        7.17        31.29 Denver Broncos             –      45.45 -11

How to read the above:  Basically, the way my system works is I calculate a point value for the following:  Offensive passing, off rushing, defensive passing, def rushing.  The point values for passing are compared to the opposing teams pass defense and so on.  Once all of these numbers are calculated the team with the highest score is assigned a number in which I believe should be the spread.  Then my spread is compared to the Vegas spread in the spread diff column.  The number in the spread diff represents the system calculated diff in spread value.  I bet on any value over 5.  So for example, the Eagles vs Broncos game is showing a spread diff of 7.17 points.  This means after taking into account that the Eagles are receiving 11 points from the Broncos on the Vegas line; they are now 7.17 points better than the Broncos.  In other words, the Broncos spread is too aggressive so we will take the Eagles and the points.  Good luck!

Disclaimer:   Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.