Week 5 NFL bets

2 Oct

Week 5 picks are in.  We went 2-2-1 last week so break even thus far.  The Jets and the Eagles screwed me over.  Watch out this week another bet with the Jets and 10 points over Atlanta.  I think the Jets keep it close as Atlanta has been struggling and has only one 1 game so far by 7 points.  Feel free to skip this one as both S. Hill and S. Holmes are out.

Week 5 Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Vegas spread
Detroit Lions        6.48        23.38 Green Bay Packers             –      20.98 -7
Philadelphia Eagles      16.62        64.79 New York Giants             –      (8.29) -3
Houston Texans      11.63        18.64 San Francisco 49ers             –      (9.51) -7
New York Jets        9.46          0.13 Atlanta Falcons             –      (2.16) -10

Disclaimer:   Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.

Week 4 NFL bets

26 Sep

Week 4 picks are in.  See notes on how to read this below.  Please see disclaimer at the bottom of this post.

Week 4 Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Vegas spread
Baltimore Ravens           –          4.33 Buffalo Bills         6.01      11.89 3.5
New York Giants           –       (36.80) Kansas City Chiefs         9.26      27.00 -4.5
New York Jets        6.96       (12.12) Tennessee Titans             –     (29.40) -4.5
Seattle Seahawks        5.59        20.59 Houston Texans             –     (27.35) 3
Philadelphia Eagles        7.17        31.29 Denver Broncos             –      45.45 -11

How to read the above:  Basically, the way my system works is I calculate a point value for the following:  Offensive passing, off rushing, defensive passing, def rushing.  The point values for passing are compared to the opposing teams pass defense and so on.  Once all of these numbers are calculated the team with the highest score is assigned a number in which I believe should be the spread.  Then my spread is compared to the Vegas spread in the spread diff column.  The number in the spread diff represents the system calculated diff in spread value.  I bet on any value over 5.  So for example, the Eagles vs Broncos game is showing a spread diff of 7.17 points.  This means after taking into account that the Eagles are receiving 11 points from the Broncos on the Vegas line; they are now 7.17 points better than the Broncos.  In other words, the Broncos spread is too aggressive so we will take the Eagles and the points.  Good luck!

Disclaimer:   Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP) a good risk/reward play

8 Feb

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SCMP)

 The following research is based on a potential momentum play based on the Companies PDUFA date for Amitiza of April 26, 2013.  Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a global pharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of proprietary drugs based on prostones. Prostones are a class of compounds that occur naturally in the human body as a result of enzymatic catalysis by 15-PGDH of eicosanoids and docosanoids.

 About Amitiza:  from the Companies website: (http://investor.sucampo.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=201197&p=irol-presentations)

  • Amitiza has been used for over 6 years with 6 million prescriptions by patients with chronic idiopathic constipation and irritable bowel syndrome with constipation
  • Priority review in the US (although FDA extended review by 3 months) with target filing in the UK and Switzerland in Q1 2013 as sNDA for treatment of Opioid-Induced Constipation
  • Pregnancy warnings have been removed from labeling
  • Good safety data and product efficacy

 Product pipeline

scmp pipeline

Key catalysts

scmp value drivers 

Financial info

From Sep 29, 2012 SEC filing:

  • Cash $ 78.6M
  • Total assets $ 121.1M
  • L-T debt $ 61.2M
  • Looks to be in solid cash position; should be able to last through potential approval without further dilution, i.e. stock offering(s)

From quote summary Yahoo! Finance 2/8/13

  • Market cap $ 219.6M
  • Shares o/s 41.59M, float 13.34M
  • P/E n/a
  • Average analyst target $ 8.00

Stock data

scmp chart 

 

While the chart above is not the most impressive chart, the stock has been trending sideways with a slight bias to the upside.  As you can see from the trendline drawn there should be a nice floor for the stock around 5.06-5.08.  What I would like to see is a break at 5.50 on greater than average volume.  Once that happens we could see a run back to the 6.00 area before the PDUFA date.  I think this will start to see increased volume in the next couple of weeks once people roll out of other plays and see the potential in this one.  I think there is a greater than 60% probability that this will be approved based on prior use of the drug, the safety and efficacy.  Coupled with possible European filings there are enough catalysts to create nice potential for a 20-25% gain.  There is a nice risk reward on this with IMO.  Set your stop a little below 5 and look to sell around 6.

See my other reports under the Biotech Momentum tab and sign up at the bottom to subscribe for e-mail alerts:

https://pokerexpress.wordpress.com/category/biotech-momentum/

Disclosure:  currently long SCMP

Disclaimer: I have never ever been paid or compensated by anyone for any stock I trade or discuss. None of the information posted on this site is to be construed as financial or investment advice. This information is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned on this board. The creator of this board is not a licensed broker or financial advisor of any kind. The information on this site is gathered from sources available to the public. As consideration in using this board, all users agree, understand, and acknowledge the creator of the board is not liable or responsible for the accuracy or use of the information provided on this site and agree to indemnify and hold the creator of this board harmless from any liability resulting from the accuracy or inaccuracy of the information and from use of the information on this board. All of the information that I post on this board is public information available to anyone! You are responsible for your own trades and not the creator of this board.  Please be aware that investing in securities carries the risk of losing some or all of your money.

NFL Week 4 picks

30 Sep

Football is back and now that I have 3 weeks of data to work with I will try an post some picks each week.  I am not personally betting on these games yet as I would like to see at least 4-5 weeks of data before I start laying down some cash.  Will keep you posted when I start to place my own money on the games.  Here is a list of who to take for week 4:

Stattrack:

PASS SCORE RUSH SCORE TOTAL OFF SCORE Advantage pts Advantage spread PASS SCORE RUSH SCORE TOTAL OFF SCORE Advantage pts Advantage spread Vegas spread home team only Spread diff Diff %
Week 4
Tennessee Titans (2.23) (9.27) (11.50) 26.90 5.38 Cleveland Browns (28.75) (14.66) (43.40) (1.00) (6.38) 638%
San Francisco 49ers (7.98) (0.23) (8.21) 29.49 5.90 Philadelphia Eagles (20.54) (22.17) (42.71) (7.00) (12.90) 184%
Minnesota Vikings (6.45) 40.82 34.37 52.13 10.43 Kansas City Chiefs (23.36) 0.59 (22.76) 1.50 (8.93) -595%
Carolina Panthers 10.02 (11.21) (1.19) 17.18 3.44 Chicago Bears 4.79 (28.16) (23.37) (6.50) (9.94) 153%
New York Jets (16.08) (13.49) (29.57) Baltimore Ravens (20.61) 34.19 13.57 48.15 9.63 (4.00) 5.63 -141%
Colts (7.01) (10.84) (17.85) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22.35) 10.80 (11.55) 11.30 2.26 (10.00) (7.74) 77%
Washington Redskins 13.50 20.37 33.88 43.48 8.70 St. Louis Rams (16.35) 1.75 (14.60) (8.70) #DIV/0!

How you read the above is, you look at the spread for the home team amount.  If negative, the home team is giving points, positive and the home team is receiving points.  The home team is the second team.  Now the spread difference takes the difference between the system calculated (pbS) amounts and the spread.  pbS calculates an advantage spread of 5.38 points for the Tennessee Titans – meaning the system thinks that the Titans should be favored by at least 5 points.  Since the Browns are favored instead and the spread difference is more than my rule of 5 points, then you will be betting on the Tennessee Titans to win.  Next, SF’s has the advantage over the Eagles, so you will be taking SF with the spread.  Next Minnesota’s calculated advantage is over 10 points and the spread is only giving KC 1.5.  You are going to take Minnesota.  Finally the Colts are receiving 10 points from the Bucs who should only be giving 2.26.  Take the Colts with the points.

Thats it for now have fun and good luck!

 

 

Disclaimer:   Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.

Belmont Stakes 2011 race day

10 Jun

Tomorrow is the 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes.  I have done some handicapping from the 6th race through the 11th and will share my thoughts below on which horses I think can put some cash in your pocket.  Please review the disclaimer below and most important enjoy race day!

Race 6

I like Turbulent Descent and Snow Fall in an exacta box.  My worry is that Snow Fall only has two races above 6 furlongs in its history so this is a risky play, however, the speed on the last two races and the 8-1 morning line definitely makes it a worthwhile bet.

Race 7

I love Frazil for an across the board (W/P/S) laddered with the majority of the money on the Show, i.e. W $2, P $3, S $5.  If he stays close the morning line odds at 15-1, this will be an excellent value pick.  I also will think about taking Trappe Shot and Calibrachoa in an exacta box.

Race 8

Take an across the board on J J’s Lucky Train with the emphasis on the win.  Derivative may be a nice long shot play as he is a clocker special according to DRF (Daily racing form).

Race 9

I am all over Cherokee Queen for a W/P/S bet with emphasis on Show.  Or a large W bet.  At 8-1 morning line odds he is showing up in my analysis as the stand out favorite.  He also was a clocker special.  Take him across the board if you have a weak stomach.  Also consider taking the favorites Aviate and Fantasia in an exacta.

Race 10

Another across the board is a good bet on Windward Islands.  He stands out as the #2 horse based on my analysis and at a morning line of 8-1 if it holds up, holds great value.  In his last 5 races at a distance of 1 mile and up, he placed 1st twice, second once, and third twice.  If the line creeps up further, increase your bet dollar for dollar above 8-1!

Race 11

Finally the Belmont Stakes.  I don’t think Shackleford will have enough juice to front run and take the Belmont like he did the Preakness.  I expect Animal Kingdom to have enough distance after the turn to catch him and beat him handily to become horse of the year.  The bad news is he will pay crap, so we gotta exacta or trifecta him somehow.  Take Animal Kingdom 1st, Nehro and Shackleford 2nd, and Mucho Macho Man, Brilliant Speed, and Santiva 3rd.  On a $2 bet that is only $12.  I also like Brilliant Speed as a value play to Place or Show. 

Good luck at the races!  I have my Blue Lagoon drinks ready to roll (look up the recipe they’re absolutely delicious) and money ready in my account…

 

Disclaimer:  The above are not recommendations but merely for entertainment purposes only.  Use your own judgement and never place a bet with money you cannot afford to lose.  The owner of this blog is not responsible for any money lost in wagering on the above ideas.

 

Will BioSante Pharmaceuticals (BPAX) continue to surge upward?

1 Jun

About BioSante Pharmaceuticals

BioSante is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing products the treatment of female sexual health and oncology.

 Products

 

Link from company website:

http://www.biosantepharma.com/Products.php

  •  The product I am mainly focusing in on is Bio-T-Gel which is a testosterone gel for the treatment of low testosterone levels in men.  The FDA has accepted the application for the drug and given a PDUFA date of November 14th 2011
    • http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/13/us-biosante-idUSTRE73C2RV20110413?feedType=RSS&feedName=globalMarketsNews&rpc=43
    • One negative for the drug is taken right from the companies 10Q is the following:  “Bio-T-Gel was developed initially by BioSante, and then it was licensed to Teva for late stage clinical development.  Teva has filed the Bio-T-Gel NDA and the PDUFA date is November 14, 2011. In April 2011, Abbott Laboratories, a marketer of a testosterone gel for men, filed a complaint against Teva alleging patent infringement with respect to Bio-T-Gel.  In its NDA filing, Teva has asserted that Bio-T-Gel does not infringe any patent listed in the FDA Orange Book related to Abbott’s testosterone gel for men.  Although the outcome of the litigation is uncertain, it could delay the FDA approval and commercial launch of Bio-T-Gel and therefore potentially affect our receipt of royalties based on sales of Bio-T-Gel by Teva.”
    • Another negative is this is the first go round for approval, so there is always the greater possibility of a CRL
  • BioSante is also currently performing a Phase III trial for its lead product LibiGel which is a treatment of female sexual dysfunction under a SPA (special protocol assessment)
  • Other catalysts include 4 cancer vaccines that have all been granted FDA orphan drug status that are still in developmental phase

Financial information

From 10Q filed  5/10/11

 From Yahoo! quote summary6/1/11

  • Market cap $287M
  • Avg analyst target $5.05
  • P/E – N/A
  • Shares o/s 94M, float 83M, short 10.5M

 Stock data and trading plan

  

My plan is to wait for the next dip and trigger the first round of buying between 2.60-2.80 per share, then wait for a break to a new high to add (the high it hits on this leg up).  I will be playing this for a gain of about 10-20% due to the worries about the lawsuit, the fact that this is the first attempt at approval for Bio-T-Gel, the high float of the stock and the anticipation of a summer sideways market.  Of course, if news breaks that the lawsuit has been dismissed then I will play more aggressively.  Also, the fact that the Company has already received financing allows for no more dilution until the PDUFA date.  For now, though the plan is to buy on the dip, hold for a breakout, add, then sell into strength.  GLTA

I would like to hear your comments and also be sure to see my other reports under the Biotech Momentum tab and sign up on the right hand side to subscribe for e-mail alerts:

https://pokerexpress.wordpress.com/category/biotech-momentum/

Disclosure:  currently no position in BPAX

Disclaimer: I have never ever been paid or compensated by anyone for any stock I trade or discuss. None of the information posted on this site is to be construed as financial or investment advice. This information is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned on this blog. The creator of this blog is not a licensed broker or financial advisor of any kind. The information on this site is gathered from sources available to the public. As consideration in using this blog, all users agree, understand, and acknowledge the creator of the blog is not liable or responsible for the accuracy or use of the information provided on this site and agree to indemnify and hold the creator of this blog harmless from any liability resulting from the accuracy or inaccuracy of the information and from use of the information on this board. All of the information that I post on this blog is public information available to anyone! You are responsible for your own trades and not the creator of this blog.  Please be aware that investing in securities carries the risk of losing some or all of your money.

 

Preakness 2011 ~ handicapping picks for tomorrows race

20 May

Tomorrow is the Preakness which is the second leg of the Triple Crown.  I have done my homework and loaded the stats into the EOTH (Eye of the Horse).  Here are the results: 

THE EYE OF THE HORSE    
Race:

12

Preakness    
Track:   Pimlico Race Track  
         

Horse name

PP

M Line

EOTH score

Comments

Mucho Macho Man

9

6-1

                      96.53

Tri/Super

Animal Kingdom

11

2-1

                      96.02

Tri/Super

Shackleford

5

12-1

                      93.97

Tri/Super

Dialed In

10

6-1

                      93.36

Tri/Super

Mr. Commons

14

20-1

                      91.20

only 2 race history

King Congie

3

20-1

                      89.99

Value pick

 I like King Congie as my value pick providing that he stays above 10-1 odds.  I think I will ladder a W/P/S bet favoring a Show.  My fear with him though is that a new jockey who never rode him before is holding the reigns.  I also like Mucho Macho Man but feel he may get extra bets based on the unfortunate death of Macho Man Randy Savage.  Also, Animal Kingdom is great, however, the odds aren’t there to make a sole bet on him.

 I am also going to box a .10 Super with the top four horses just for the heck of it, hey why not.  You’re getting the top four horses in a 2.40 bet!

 Keep an eye out for Sway Away and Astrology.  They might be a great play also.  Have fun and good luck!