Tag Archives: nfl betting system

Week 13 NFL bets

27 Nov

Happy Thanksgiving!  We are now 18-14-1 on the year.   I have three picks this week, one of which is on Thanksgiving day.  I wanted to play all three Thanksgiving games so I added the other two even though they are out of my betting thresh hold.  I wanted to have some more fun watching the games… Good luck!

 

Week 13

Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Vegas spread
Oakland Raiders      10.48        28.97 Dallas Cowboys             –      11.58 -9
Chicago Bears        6.75        41.23 Minnesota Vikings             –        2.48 -1
New England Patriots           –        14.76 Houston Texans         7.12      (4.66) 9
Arizona Cardinals           –       (14.65) Philadelphia Eagles         5.32      16.95 -3
Green Bay Packers        1.97        20.09 Detroit Lions             –      30.24 -6
Pittsburgh Steelers           –       (20.59) Baltimore Ravens         3.34        1.08 -3

 

Disclaimer:   Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.

Week 12 NFL bets

21 Nov

Finally hit a trio!  Went 3-0-0 last week to make the total 16-14-1.  Back above .500 and hopefully climbing.  Also hit the 3 bet parlay on the same three teams last week adding to the winning totals.  I am now almost back to even for the year.  There are only 2 bets this week so I have played a teaser on them as well taking 6 points off the spread in each game.  Good luck!

Week 11 Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Vegas spread
Tampa Bay Buccaneers        6.16         (9.92) Detroit Lions             –        1.80 -10.5
Carolina Panthers        5.51        13.70 Miami Dolphins             –     (46.33) 4.5

 

 

Disclaimer:   Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.

Week 11 NFL bets

14 Nov

The total win-loss-tie ratio is 13-14-1.  We are almost at break even for the season with 7 weeks to go until the playoffs.  We need a little bit of a run to get back up to the last 2 seasons 60% win ratio.  Good luck!

Week 11 Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Vegas spread
Washington Redskins           –          6.66 Philadelphia Eagles         7.06      49.46 -3.5
New England Patriots           –       (29.13) Carolina Panthers         6.76      (0.35) -1
Atlanta Falcons           –       (12.39) Tampa Bay Buccaneers         7.02        5.21 1.5

 

Disclaimer:   Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.

NFL Week 10 bets

7 Nov

Okay, so now we are under water this season so far, a total of 11-13-1 on the season.  My guess is the difficulty in handicapping all of the QB starts this year.  Usually, I deduct points from the team that starts a backup QB.  Also, most teams this year are showing no consistency in their play.  They win one week and lose the next.  With that said, I am still plugging away trying to make a run to some $.  I missed the post from Week 8 and went 1-2 and Week 9 only had one pick which I did not bet (and wouldve won).  Here are the picks for week 10:

Week 10 Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Vegas spread
Philadelphia Eagles        9.99        47.51 Green Bay Packers             –      22.56 -1
Buffalo Bills        8.43        16.75 Pittsburgh Steelers             –     (12.89) -3.5
Carolina Panthers        8.50          5.54 San Francisco 49ers             –     (11.96) -6

 

Disclaimer:   Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.

NFL week 7 bets

16 Oct

Okay, so the tally is 8-7-1 on the season thus far.  The further we get in, the more reliable the system should be (in theory at least).  With that said, I am expecting a killer week soon and hopefully this is the one!

Here are the picks for this week:

Week 7 Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Vegas spread
Chicago Bears        7.77        38.87 Washington Redskins             –      (4.97) 0
Dallas Cowboys           –        18.09 Philadelphia Eagles         6.71      61.62 -3
St. Louis Rams           –       (23.63) Carolina Panthers         6.30      32.89 -6
Baltimore Ravens        5.78        11.85 Pittsburgh Steelers             –     (17.03) -1
Denver Broncos           –        45.58 Indianapolis Colts         6.02      35.69 7
Minnesota Vikings        8.68        28.61 New York Giants             –      (2.30) -3.5

Week 6 NFL bets

9 Oct

Last week was another 2-2 event.  We are stuck in the mud spinning our wheels at 4-4-1.  I think the late scratch of Megatron hurt the play on Detroit.  As for Houston, well I assume this week’s #’s will reflect their poor play so no reason to believe another bet will be for them but against them instead.  Anyway, we have 7 picks this week and here they are good luck!

Week 6 Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Spread diff TOTAL OFF SCORE Vegas spread
New York Giants           –       (49.37) Chicago Bears         8.20      31.61 -9
Philadelphia Eagles        5.11        23.92 Tampa Bay Buccaneers             –     (11.61) 1
Pittsburgh Steelers           –       (25.08) New York Jets         6.04      15.11 -3
Cincinnati Bengals           –         (7.18) Buffalo Bills         8.74     (13.47) 9
Tennessee Titans        9.08       (21.64) Seattle Seahawks             –      (2.05) -14
Jacksonville Jaguars        5.31       (26.74) Denver Broncos             –      76.68 -27
Arizona Cardinals        5.89       (28.68) San Francisco 49ers             –      (5.63) -11.5

 

Disclaimer:   Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.

NFL Week 4 picks

30 Sep

Football is back and now that I have 3 weeks of data to work with I will try an post some picks each week.  I am not personally betting on these games yet as I would like to see at least 4-5 weeks of data before I start laying down some cash.  Will keep you posted when I start to place my own money on the games.  Here is a list of who to take for week 4:

Stattrack:

PASS SCORE RUSH SCORE TOTAL OFF SCORE Advantage pts Advantage spread PASS SCORE RUSH SCORE TOTAL OFF SCORE Advantage pts Advantage spread Vegas spread home team only Spread diff Diff %
Week 4
Tennessee Titans (2.23) (9.27) (11.50) 26.90 5.38 Cleveland Browns (28.75) (14.66) (43.40) (1.00) (6.38) 638%
San Francisco 49ers (7.98) (0.23) (8.21) 29.49 5.90 Philadelphia Eagles (20.54) (22.17) (42.71) (7.00) (12.90) 184%
Minnesota Vikings (6.45) 40.82 34.37 52.13 10.43 Kansas City Chiefs (23.36) 0.59 (22.76) 1.50 (8.93) -595%
Carolina Panthers 10.02 (11.21) (1.19) 17.18 3.44 Chicago Bears 4.79 (28.16) (23.37) (6.50) (9.94) 153%
New York Jets (16.08) (13.49) (29.57) Baltimore Ravens (20.61) 34.19 13.57 48.15 9.63 (4.00) 5.63 -141%
Colts (7.01) (10.84) (17.85) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22.35) 10.80 (11.55) 11.30 2.26 (10.00) (7.74) 77%
Washington Redskins 13.50 20.37 33.88 43.48 8.70 St. Louis Rams (16.35) 1.75 (14.60) (8.70) #DIV/0!

How you read the above is, you look at the spread for the home team amount.  If negative, the home team is giving points, positive and the home team is receiving points.  The home team is the second team.  Now the spread difference takes the difference between the system calculated (pbS) amounts and the spread.  pbS calculates an advantage spread of 5.38 points for the Tennessee Titans – meaning the system thinks that the Titans should be favored by at least 5 points.  Since the Browns are favored instead and the spread difference is more than my rule of 5 points, then you will be betting on the Tennessee Titans to win.  Next, SF’s has the advantage over the Eagles, so you will be taking SF with the spread.  Next Minnesota’s calculated advantage is over 10 points and the spread is only giving KC 1.5.  You are going to take Minnesota.  Finally the Colts are receiving 10 points from the Bucs who should only be giving 2.26.  Take the Colts with the points.

Thats it for now have fun and good luck!

 

 

Disclaimer:   Past results do not necessarily predict future results.  The system as explained above uses a system of sports statistics to analyze team data and compare the results.  The system in no way is expected to guarantee results or even yield a winning percentage.  You should only place bets with money that you can expect to lose.  All information herein is for entertainment purposes only.